oil and food price shocks transmit to the inflationary outlook and the real economy. In this paper, we try to tackle this … issue by means of a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. We first examine the short-run inflationary effects of oil … and food price shocks on a given set of countries. Secondly, we assess the importance of inflation linkages among …

This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a … structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil … production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price …

We propose a novel empirical structural inflation model that captures non-linear shock transmission using a Bayesian … magnitude restrictions within the factor model. Applying our method to euro area energy shocks, we find that inflation reacts …

The role that the price of oil plays in economic analysis in central banks as well as in financial markets has evolved … over time. Oil is not seen anymore just as a input to production but also as a barometer of global economic activity as … well as a financial asset. A high frequency structural decomposition of the price of oil can therefore inform on the state …

oil and food price shocks transmit to the inflationary outlook and the real economy. In this paper, we try to tackle this … issue by means of a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. We first examine the short-run inflationary effects of oil … and food price shocks on a given set of countries. Secondly, we assess the importance of inflation linkages among …

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil … production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this … coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market tight in the face of a large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a …

oil usage and endogenous price markups. We find that the price markup reacts positively to the ratio of expected … to monetary policy and oil prices is estimated to have declined in the post-1990 period, in line with the higher … predictability of policy and the fall in the persistence and - to a lesser extent - variability of oil disturbances. Counterfactual …