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Wages, Compositional Effects and the Business Cycle

Christodoulopoulou, Styliani; Kouvavas, Omiros - 2022

During the Great Recession, unemployment increased substantially across several euro area countries, with wages … effect of changes in the composition of workers on wages and wage cyclicality. We find that compositional effects are highly … results partially explain the muted response of the observed wages to the business cycle, as wages decreased more than what …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013297414

Financial Conditions, Business Cycle Fluctuations and Growth at Risk

Falconio, Andrea - 2020

We study the macroeconomic consequences of financial shocks and increase in economic risk using a quantile vector autoregression. Financial shocks have a negative, but asymmetric impact on the real economy: they substantially increase growth at risk, but have limited impact on upside potential....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822485

Business Cycles in the Euro Area

Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2021

This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316407

Technological Diversification

Koren, Miklós; Tenreyro, Silvana - 2021

Why is GDP so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? To answer this question, we propose a theory of technological diversification. Production makes use of different input varieties, which are subject to imperfectly correlated shocks. As in endogenous growth models,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318779

Wages, compositional effects and the business cycle

Christodoulopoulou, Styliani; Kouvavas, Omiros - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272144

Dissecting Saving Dynamics : Measuring Wealth, Precautionary and Credit Effects

Carroll, Chris - 2019

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate's long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s-2007), and recent substantial increase (2008-2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious 'buffer stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905525

Endogenous Labor Share Cycles : Theory and Evidence

Growiec, Jakub - 2015

Based on long US time series we document a range of empirical properties of the labor's share of GDP, including its substantial medium-run swings. We explore the extent to which these empirical regularities can be explained by a calibrated micro-founded long-run economic growth model with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026218

On the sources of business cycles: Implications for DSGE models

Andrle, Michal; Brůha, Jan; Solmaz, Serhat - 2017

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations a re d riven b y o ne major factor. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011804373

Determinants of the credit cycle: A flow analysis of the extensive margin

Cuciniello, Vincenzo; Di Iasio, Nicola - 2020

We use monthly data on individual loans from the Italian Credit Register over the period from 1997 to 2019 and show that bank credit expansions in the non-financial private sector are mostly explained by variations in the extensive margin calculated either in credit ows or headcount of new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422107

Firm expectations and economic activity

Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J. - 2021

We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819035