This paper assesses the forecasting performance of various variable reduction and variable selection methods. A small … and a large set of wisely chosen variables are used in forecasting the industrial production growth for four Euro Area …

find evidence that the CLI encompasses useful information for forecasting industrial production, particularly over horizons …. At the same time, we find indications that the forecast accuracy has declined over time for several countries. Augmenting … the country-specific CLI with a leading indicator of the external environment and employing forecast combination …

-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …

and corporate bonds and we compare their predictive role over time and over different forecasting horizons …

This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and forecast accuracy. The PPP model offers little economic insights, but … better quality than PPP. The MB approach has the most appealing economic interpretation, but performs poorly in forecasting …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets, and Wouters … professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information …