-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations …

reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …

and corporate bonds and we compare their predictive role over time and over different forecasting horizons …

This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and forecast accuracy. The PPP model offers little economic insights, but … better quality than PPP. The MB approach has the most appealing economic interpretation, but performs poorly in forecasting …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …