the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two …

subjective choices in the setting of the prior. Moreover, it performs very well both in terms of out-of-sample forecasting …

distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … provide more robust forecasts. We investigate this issue for forecasts from a range of short-term forecasting models. Our … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination …

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … period of 1994-2008. Except for short-term forecasts of inflation and interest rates, it is as good as or clearly outperforms …

.S. inflation. …

-statistic has best power. We illustrate, our procedures by comparing forecasts of different models for U.S. inflation …

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …