are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …

We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential …-variation in (i) the data-generation process for inflation, which we capture via a time-varying parameters specification for the … Phillips curve portion of the model; and (ii) the volatilities of disturbances to inflation and cyclical(log) output, which we …

inflation and wage inflation) into trend and cyclical components. To do so, it relies on several reduced form relationships … reasonable forecasting performance in particular in terms of GDP and core inflation vis-a-vis a set of benchmarks …

contribute more to variations in the policy rate, inflation and output than shocks to the feedback rule for the policy rate …

This paper tests whether the proposition that globalisation has led to greater sensitivity of domestic inflation to the … power for domestic consumer price inflation in the euro area. Based on these findings, the prescription that central banks …