Showing 1 - 10 of 158
expectations assumption, we show the transition may initially be inflationary. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278233
Consumers' inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for … expectations. These include the apparent overestimation of inflation by consumers as well as the negative correlation observed … between the economic outlook and inflation expectations. We also show that the uncertainty framework fits with some of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272133
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661627
We provide a new theory of expectations-driven business cycles in which consumers' learning from prices dramatically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011804368
helps overall macroeconomic stability by making expectations operate like automatic stabilizers. Second, under a price level … arguments in favour of or against price level path stability depend on the degree of dependence of private sector expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604864
We study the redistributive effects of surprise inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth;...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543616
may or may not coordinate on the rational equilibrium outcome. A general finding is that under positive expectations … feedback (strategic complementarity) - where optimistic (pessimistic) expectations can cause a boom (bust) - coordination … by coordination on trend-following behavior leading to (almost-)self-fulfilling equilibria. Heterogeneous expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142045
To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. "CARES" act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422103
expectations, which is detrimental to welfare. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604074
knowledge of their personal circumstances but "sticky expectations" about the macroeconomy. In our model, the persistence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916856