This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. …

) influences individuals' expectations and uncertainty about future inflation, and whether it anchors inflation expectations. We … find that higher trust in the ECB lowers inflation expectations on average, and significantly reduces uncertainty about … future inflation. Moreover, results from quantile regressions suggest that trusting the ECB increases (lowers) inflation …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

of forward guidance on the sensitivity of bond yields to macroeconomic news, and on forecaster disagreement about the …

The aim of this study is to assess the extent to which the degree of heterogeneity of inflation expectations is driven … is higher at times of high inflation and decreasing thereafter, this mechanism can contribute to upward biases in … inflation expectations over long periods of time. …

index is based on the disagreement amongst US professional forecasters about future government spending. The underlying … intuition is that a clear fiscal policy communication can coalesce expectations, reducing disagreement. Results indicate that …, in times of low disagreement, the output response to fiscal spending innovations is positive and large, mainly due to …

, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and … disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP …

(economic) transparency, and given our findings that disagreement among inflation expectations in the general public is not … announcing a quantified inflation objective, other forms of communication, or by publishing central banks’ inflation and output …