dollar shock, generalised impulse response function shocks and a global shock to risk aversion. Our results show that the way … depends crucially on the nature of the shock. This result is noteworthy given the apparent divergence in competitiveness …

This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to …-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings show that: (1) output appears more responsive to an interest rate shock at … the beginning of our sample. Since 2000, absorbing this shock has become less costly in terms of output, notwithstanding …

production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times …

How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the … global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They cause a synchronized contraction of global economic activity and … illustrate through counterfactuals that the dollar appreciation amplifies the adverse impact of global risk shocks outside of the …

(a demand shock, an employment shock, a wage and price mark-up shocks). In addition, it provides the shock decomposition …