The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from...

We study empirically the macroeconomic effects of an explicit de jure quantitative goal for monetary policy. Quantitative goals take three forms: exchange rates, money growth rates, and inflation targets. We analyze the effects on inflation of both having a quantitative target, and of hitting a...

Narrow and broad money measures (including Divisia aggregates) have been found to have explanatory power for UK output in backward-looking specifications of the IS curve. In this paper, we explore whether or not real balances enter into a forward-looking IS curve for the UK, building on the...

The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from...

This paper proposes methods for estimation and inference in multivariate, multi-quantile models. The theory can simultaneously accommodate models with multiple random variables, multiple confidence levels, and multiple lags of the associated quantiles. The proposed framework can be conveniently...

On March 10, 2016, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) – commonly known as corporate quantitative easing (QE) – to improve the financing conditions of the Eurozone's real economy and strengthen the pass-through of unconventional monetary...

We study changes in the wage structures in nine EU countries over 1995-2002 and the role of demand, supply and institutional developments in shaping these changes. Using comparable cross-country microeconomic data, we compute for each country and at each decile of the wage distribution, the part...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (cross-sectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has...

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the European Central Bank (ECB). We show that a quantile regression forest, capturing a general non-linear relationship between euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large...

This paper considers the impact of changes in governments' payment discipline on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union...