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This paper proposes a framework for deriving early-warning models with optimal out-of-sample forecasting properties and applies it to predicting distress in European banks. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, the paper introduces a conceptual framework to guide the process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142026
This paper proposes a framework for deriving early-warning models with optimal out-of-sample forecasting properties and applies it to predicting distress in European banks. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, the paper introduces a conceptual framework to guide the process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315402
We study optimal liquidity management, innovation, and production decisions for a continuum of firms facing financing … spur investment in innovation (R&D). We characterize which firms should substitute production for innovation in the face of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988600
This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks' large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142068
Systemic risk in the banking sector is usually associated with long periods of economic downturn and very large social costs. On one hand, shocks coming from correlated exposures towards the real economy may induce correlation in banks' default probabilities thereby increasing the likelihood for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422164
This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks' large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894738
Systemic risk in the banking sector is usually associated with long periods of economic downturn and very large social costs. On one hand, shocks coming from correlated exposures towards the real economy may induce correlation in banks' default probabilities thereby increasing the likelihood for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314798
This paper studies the implications of cross-border financial integration for financial stability when banks' loan portfolios adjust endogenously. Banks can be subject to sectoral and aggregate domestic shocks. After integration they can share these risks in a complete interbank market. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605470
This paper studies the implications of cross-border financial integration for financial stability when banks' loan portfolios adjust endogenously. Banks can be subject to sectoral and aggregate domestic shocks. After integration they can share these risks in a complete interbank market. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110784
We build a model to simulate how the euro area market-based financial system may function under stress. The core of the model is a set of representative agents re ecting key economic sectors, which interact in asset, funding, and derivatives markets and face solvency and liquidity constraints on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013368001