Showing 1 - 10 of 754
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
filtered using EGARCH specifications. The estimation results show that upgrades do not have significant effects on volatility …, but downgrades increase stock and bond market volatility. Contagion is present, with sovereign rating announcements … (increase) in volatility in other countries. The empirical results show also a financial gain and risk (value-at-risk) reduction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057674
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054678
. It shows that similar press releases generate less market volatility, but that more substantial textual changes after a … sequence of very similar statements lead to much larger volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962430
We provide a new theory of expectations-driven business cycles in which consumers' learning from prices dramatically alters the effects of aggregate shocks. Learning from prices causes changes in aggregate productivity to shift aggregate beliefs, generating positive price-quantity comovement....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956266
the opposite direction of transitory pricing errors, both on average and on the highest volatility days. This is done …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074385
In this paper we examine the quantitative effects of margin regulation on volatility in asset markets. We consider a … of collateral constraints leads to strong excess volatility. Thus, a regulation of margin requirements may have … in the regulation of one class of assets may have only small effects on these assets' return volatility if investors have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051665
We propose a new approach to measuring the effect of unobservable private information or beliefs on volatility. Using … high-frequency intraday data, we estimate the volatility effect of a well identified shock on the volatility of the stock … that, as the publicly available information becomes stale, volatility effects and its persistence should increase, as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317418
future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval … option prices. We find that the OTC implied volatilities explain a much larger share of the variation in realized volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604412
filtered using EGARCH specifications. The estimation results show that upgrades do not have significant effects on volatility …, but downgrades increase stock and bond market volatility. Contagion is present, with sovereign rating announcements … (increase) in volatility in other countries. The empirical results show also a financial gain and risk (value-at-risk) reduction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605699