This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …

the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and non-monetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest … benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for …

volatility of returns. Moreover, we are able to predict all the conditional covariances among the observable series …

periods of low and high economic volatility (more specifically, we consider 2002-2007, which falls into the ‘Great Moderation …

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to … findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy … of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in others. …

To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those …-specification, estimation uncertainty and mis-measurement error. Forecastorigin shifts in parameters affect absolute, but not relative, forecast … accuracies; mis-specification and estimation uncertainty induce forecast-error differences, which variable-selection procedures …