This paper studies factors behind inflation dynamics in the euro area, the UK and the US. It introduces a factor … inflation in the three economies. The FAVAR model framework is also applied to study the effects on inflation subcomponents in … the more recent past. The FAVAR models suggest that headline inflation in the three economies has reacted in a relatively …

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing … the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural rate model even after economists had developed statistical evidence … inflation rate in light of updated probabilities that it assigns to three competing models of the Phillips curve. Cautious …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

The paper studies how a prolonged period of subdued price developments may induce a de-anchoring of inflation … properties of inflation expectations in the euro area. Our results also suggest that monetary policy may lose effectiveness if …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

contributes to improve core inflation forecasts multiple quarters ahead. Other common textual analysis techniques, such as … valuable for out-of-sample forecasting even after controlling for the central bank inflation forecasts, which are an important …