Showing 1 - 10 of 1,229
This paper investigates the importance of labor market institutions for inflation and unemployment dynamics. Using the … Unemployment Rigidities (UR) and those that cause Real Wage Rigidities (RWR). The two types of institutions have opposite effects … and their interaction is crucial for the dynamics of inflation and unemployment. We estimate a panel VAR with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144855
macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146503
with a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment responds to the state of the economy. We show that deviations from Okun …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079147
the unemployment rate to measure expectations of future developments in economic activity. We find that the effect of … expectation shocks on the realized unemployment rate have been particularly large during the most recent recession. Unanticipated … changes in expectations contributed to the gradual increase in the persistence of the unemployment rate and to the decline in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025015
This paper asks two questions. First, can we detect empirically whether the shocks recovered from the estimates of a structural VAR are truly structural? Second, can the problem of nonfundamentalness be solved by considering additional information? The answer to the first question is "yes" and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317596
In Denmark official quarterly national accounts are only available for the period since 1977. The paper constructs a set of summary non-seasonally adjusted quarterly national accounts for Denmark for 1948-2010 in current and constant prices as well as a set of other key quarterly macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102102
This paper aims to shed light on the role of credit supply shocks in euro area countries during the recent pre-crisis, bust, and post-crisis periods. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility à la Primiceri (2005) is estimated for each country, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049850
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316154
This paper investigates the importance of labor market institutions for inflation and unemployment dynamics. Using the … Unemployment Rigidities (UR) and those that cause Real Wage Rigidities (RWR). The two types of institutions have opposite effects … and their interaction is crucial for the dynamics of inflation and unemployment. We estimate a panel VAR with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605229
paper, we present a model with equilibrium unemployment which has three distinctive properties. First, using a search and …, which allows the model to reproduce the fluctuations of unemployment over the business cycle. And third, the model implies a … reasonable elasticity of steady state unemployment with respect to changes in benefits. The calibration of the model implies low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604969