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output changes. In the euro area investment is the predominant driver of output changes, while in the U.S. consumption shifts … several potential explanations for it. While the evidence seems to point at differences in consumption responses, rather than … investment, as the proximate cause for this fact, the source of the consumption difference remains a puzzle. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604314
-varying consumption volatility risk is essential for obtaining the inversion of the real curve and allows to price the average level and …We propose a consumption-based model that allows for an inverted term structure of real and nominal risk-free rates. In … our framework the agent is subject to time-varying macroeconomic risk and interest rates at all maturities depend on her …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921898
stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility …The VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, strongly co-moves with measures of the monetary policy … ("uncertainty"), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080094
production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065408
A large empirical literature suggests that risk premia on stocks or corporate bonds are large and countercyclical. This … paper studies a simple real business cycle model with a small, exogenously time-varying risk of disaster, and shows that it … can replicate several important facts documented in the literature. In the model, an increase in disaster risk leads to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102105
funding liquidity risk in their inter- mediation activity. Importantly, the amount of liquidity reserves held in the financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048760
overoptimistic. We find that it is difficult to generate a boom-bust cycle (a period in which stock prices, consumption, investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316465
We build a model of the aggregate housing and rental markets in which house prices and rents are determined endogenously. Households can choose their housing tenure status (renters, homeowners, or landlords) and the size of their homes depending on their age, income and wealth. We use our model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199552
domestic currency. This assumption implies merging the commodity risk with the exchange rate risk when oil and stocks are … concept, to assess how could change the stock market response depending on the source of risk that moves oil prices. I apply …-related scenario in euros could generate an opposite impact in the European stock market depending on the source of risk. The source of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315362
Based on standard New Keynesian models I show that policy counterfactuals based on the theoretical structural VAR representations of the models fail to reliably capture the impact of changes in the parameters of the Taylor rule on the (reduced-form) properties of the economy. Based on estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144289