We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no …, inflation appears to be (nearly) purely forward-looking, so that no mechanism introducing backward-looking components is … necessary to fit the data. These results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post-WWII U …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no …, inflation appears to be (nearly) purely forward-looking, so that no mechanism introducing backward-looking components is … necessary to fit the data. These results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post-WWII U …

Surprisingly it did not, or at least not directly. Using micro data on consumer prices and sectoral inflation rates … has altered the behaviour of retail price setting and/or inflation dynamics. We find no evidence that anything has changed … earlier patterns. On the contrary, we do find evidence of a decline in the persistence of the inflation process in the mid …

differ in their "lower-for-longer" commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility … strategies would call for anticipated timing of the start of the hiking cycle: earlier tightening would prevent inflation from … peaking at 10%, but the forceful tightening since 2022:Q3 prevented higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, once …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …