estimation of the natural rates of interest, unemployment and output, and the sustainable growth rate of the US economy. By …

my model to match the volatility and correlation with output of the external finance premium, bank leverage …

financial tensions and asset price volatility. We study the interactions of behavioral and financial frictions in an environment …

facts. First, entries in the credit market by new obligors (“inflows”) account for the bulk of volatility in the net … creation of borrowers. Second, the volatility of borrower inflows is two times as large as the volatility of obligors exiting …

In this paper we propose a new methodology to estimate the volatility of interest rates in the euro area money market … liquidity risk. The measure is constructed as the implied instantaneous volatility of a consol bond that would be priced on the … historical volatility, in the sense that dividing the consol excess returns by this volatility removes nearly entirely excess of …

production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times …

Why is GDP so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? To answer this question, we propose a theory of … and it hence lowers the volatility of output. Technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit …