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In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159358
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753643
Does distance matter for the volatility of international real and financial transactions? We show that it does, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889878
Inflation volatility is clearly important for structural analysis, forecasting and policy purposes, yet it is often … overlooked in the literature. This paper compares inflation volatility among advanced open economies with inflation targeting …, the volatility of inflation was similar among countries, even when controlling for monetary policy activity and other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827759
This paper examines volatility spillovers from changes in the size of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve (FED … most susceptible to positive volatility spillovers from both the FED and ECB in terms of magnitude. Positive volatility … about ten. By contrast, we find that EME stock markets are subject to negative volatility spillovers. Moreover, we find only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958440
aggregate output across industrial sectors which minimize the economy’s long-term volatility for a given level of long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605305
following the auctions. This effect is stronger when market volatility is higher. We rationalize both findings using a simple …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956251
filtered using EGARCH specifications. The estimation results show that upgrades do not have significant effects on volatility …, but downgrades increase stock and bond market volatility. Contagion is present, with sovereign rating announcements … (increase) in volatility in other countries. The empirical results show also a financial gain and risk (value-at-risk) reduction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057674
We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explained by the high correlation between trade and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606031