Showing 1 - 10 of 361
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
During 2005-2006, the Chinese government implemented a reform aimed at eliminating the so-called non-tradable shares (NTS) typically held by the State or by politically connected institutional investors that were issued at the early stage of financial market development. Our analysis, based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125357
We provide evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms (measures that approximate the definition of 'granular shock' given in Gabaix, 2010) are key to improve the predictability of aggregate business cycle fluctuations in a number of countries. Specifically,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121824
The goal of this paper is to analyze predictability of future asset returns in the context of model uncertainty. Using data for the euro area, the US and the UK, we show that one can improve the forecasts of stock returns using a model averaging approach, and there is a large amount of model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078196
The literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements: Some announcements have a strong impact on asset prices and others do not. In order to explain these differences, we estimate a novel measure of the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic announcement,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999415
Market participants often invest in order to acquire information that pertains to the market itself (e.g. order flow) rather than to fundamentals. This enables them to infer more information from past trades. I show that agents trading on such information, typically high-frequency traders,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082533
We study the effects on the stock market of a securities transaction tax (STT). In particular, we focus on the recent introduction of a STT in Italy. Indeed, a peculiarity of the Italian STT is that it only concerns stocks of corporations with a market capitalization above 500 million euros. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984218
We study empirically how competition among high-frequency traders (HFTs) affects their trading behavior and market quality. Our analysis exploits a unique dataset, which allows us to compare environments with and without high-frequency competition, and contains an exogenous event - a tick size...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868588
We examine stock index and Treasury futures markets around releases of U.S. macroeconomic announcements. Seven out of 21 market-moving announcements show evidence of substantial informed trading before the official release time. Prices begin to move in the "correct" direction about 30 minutes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992424
A growing body of literature analyses the impact of news on companies’ equity prices. We add to this literature by showing that the transmission channel of news to prices differs across sectors. First, we disentangle sectoral equity prices into components of expected future earnings and equity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314912