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returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054678
speculative trading increases. As a result, market liquidity deteriorates and short-term volatility rises. Our findings hold for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868588
We provide evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms (measures that approximate the … fluctuations in a number of countries. Specifically, adding the return and the volatility of firm-level equity prices to aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121824
This paper models volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets, tests for changes in the transmission … estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs). Wald tests suggest that mature market volatility affects conditional … variances in local markets rise as well, volatility in mature markets rises more, and this shift is the main factor behind the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154956
We estimate time-varying expected excess returns on the US stock market from 1983 to 2008 using a model that jointly captures the arbitrage-free dynamics of stock returns and nominal bond yields. The model nests the class of affine term structure (of interest rates) models. Stock returns and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316384
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
-varying consumption volatility risk is essential for obtaining the inversion of the real curve and allows to price the average level and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921898
filtered using EGARCH specifications. The estimation results show that upgrades do not have significant effects on volatility …, but downgrades increase stock and bond market volatility. Contagion is present, with sovereign rating announcements … (increase) in volatility in other countries. The empirical results show also a financial gain and risk (value-at-risk) reduction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057674
Using the 2007-2009 financial crisis as a laboratory, we analyze the transmission of crises to country-industry equity portfolios in 55 countries. We use an asset pricing framework with global and local factors to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315979
We assess whether the euro had an impact first on the degree of integration of European financial markets, and, second, on the euro area term structure. We propose two methodologies to measure integration: one relies on time-varying GARCH correlations, and the other one on a regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604644