Similar Search Results

Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive Models

Binder, Michael - 2013

The purpose of the paper is to develop a Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive (RS-GVAR) model. The RS-GVAR model allows for recurring or non-recurring structural changes in all or a subset of countries. It can be used to generate regime-dependent impulse response functions which are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078535

Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated VAR Models : With Applications to the Demand for Euro Area M3

Warne, Anders - 2021

The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space …. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated … the marginal likelihood identity is used for calculating these probabilities, a point estimator of the cointegration space …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317369

Deflationary Financial Shocks and Inflationary Uncertainty Shocks : An SVAR Investigation

De Santis, Roberto A.; Van der Veken, Wouter - 2022

What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In response to un-certainty shocks, firms increase their markups,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076665

Are Asset Price Data Informative About News Shocks? A DSGE Perspective

Iskrev, Nikolay I. - 2018

Standard economic intuition suggests that asset prices are more sensitive to news than other economic aggregates. This has led many researchers to conclude that asset price data would be very useful for the estimation of business cycle models containing news shocks. This paper shows how to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916362

Business Cycles, Monetary Transmission and Shocks to Financial Stability : Empirical Evidence from a New Set of Danish Quarterly National Accounts 1948-2010

Abildgren, Kim - 2012

In Denmark official quarterly national accounts are only available for the period since 1977. The paper constructs a set of summary non-seasonally adjusted quarterly national accounts for Denmark for 1948-2010 in current and constant prices as well as a set of other key quarterly macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102102

Granger-Causal-Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions

Jarocinski, Marek - 2013

A researcher is interested in a set of variables that he wants to model with a vector auto-regression and he has a dataset with more variables. Which variables from the dataset to include in the VAR, in addition to the variables of interest? This question arises in many applications of VARs, in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074480

Credit Supply Dynamics and Economic Activity in Euro Area Countries : A Time-Varying Parameter VAR Analysis

Bijsterbosch, Martin - 2014

This paper aims to shed light on the role of credit supply shocks in euro area countries during the recent pre-crisis, bust, and post-crisis periods. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility à la Primiceri (2005) is estimated for each country, and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049850

A New Identification of Fiscal Shocks Based on the Information Flow

Ricco, Giovanni - 2015

Can discretionary increases in government spending stimulate the economy? We answer this question by taking into account both the information flow on fiscal measures and the role played by information frictions. Using a novel set of empirical proxies for fiscal news and agents' misperceptions,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020630

Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs

Droumaguet, Matthieu - 2015

We derive restrictions for Granger noncausality in Markov-switching vector autoregressive models and also show under which conditions a variable does not affect the forecast of the hidden Markov process. Based on Bayesian approach to evaluating the hypotheses, the computational tools for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020665

Forecasting and Stress Testing with Quantile Vector Autoregression

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan - 2019

We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859199