We propose a granular framework that makes use of advanced statistical methods to approximate developments in economy-wide expected corporate earnings. In particular, we evaluate the dynamic network structure of stock returns in the United States as a proxy for the transmission of shocks through...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (cross-sectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has...

Using OECD composite leading indicators (CLI), we assess empirically whether the ability of the country-specific CLIs to predict economic activity has diminished in recent years, e.g. due to rapid advances in globalisation. Overall, we find evidence that the CLI encompasses useful information...

To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of...

Short-term fiscal indicators based on public accounts data are often used by European policy makers. They represent one of the main sources of publicly available intra-annual fiscal information. Nevertheless, these indicators have received limited attention from the academic literature analysing...

From a conceptual point of view there is little consensus of what should be the 'ideal indicator' of international cost and price competitiveness as each of the standard measures typically employed has its own merits and drawbacks. This calls for addressing the question from an empirical angle,...

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a focus on the time span from 2014 onward when long-term beliefs have substantially drifted away from the policy target. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail...

We compare the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom, focusing on the post-crisis period. First of all, we estimate a set of measures of average and tail correlation using inflation swaps and options, following Natoli and...

This paper investigates leading indicators of systemic banking crises in a panel of 11 EU countries, with a particular focus on Finland. We use quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2013Q2, in order to create a large number of macro-financial indicators, as well as their various transformations. We make...

This paper analyses leading indicator properties of a broad set of credit spreads, compiled on the basis of information from both corporate bonds and bank loans for forecasting of real activity, unemployment, inflation and lending volumes in the euro area and in five major European economies. It...