The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap …

This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …

unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast …

the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and non-monetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest … benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for …

heteroskedastic. After presenting the model, we propose a multi-step estimation technique which combines asymptotic principal … results in order to assess the finite sample properties of the estimation technique. Finally, we carry out two empirical …

density forecast performance. Controlling for the effects of common macroeconomic shocks, we apply cross-sectional and fixed … effect panel regressions linking such density characteristics and density forecast performance. Our empirical results suggest … distributions tend - as a rule - not to contribute significantly to enhancing individual density forecast performance …