The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...

In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...

The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are...

A growing body of literature analyses the impact of news on companies' equity prices. We add to this literature by showing that the transmission channel of news to prices differs across sectors. First, we disentangle sectoral equity prices into components of expected future earnings and equity...

We study the role of informed trading in a fragmented financial market under the absence of inter-market price priority. Due to frictions in traders’ market access, liquidity providers on alternative trading platforms may be exposed to an increased adverse selection risk. As a consequence, the...

We show that limited dealer participation in the market, coupled with an informational friction resulting from high frequency trading, can induce demand for liquidity to be upward sloping and strategic complementarities in traders' liquidity consumption decisions: traders demand more liquidity...

We show that limited dealer participation in the market, coupled with an informational friction resulting from high frequency trading, can induce demand for liquidity to be upward sloping and strategic complementarities in traders' liquidity consumption decisions traders demand more liquidity...

We study the role of informed trading in a fragmented financial market under the absence of inter-market price priority. Due to frictions in traders' market access, liquidity providers on alternative trading platforms may be exposed to an increased adverse selection risk. As a consequence, the...

A growing body of literature analyses the impact of news on companies’ equity prices. We add to this literature by showing that the transmission channel of news to prices differs across sectors. First, we disentangle sectoral equity prices into components of expected future earnings and equity...

This paper presents a new framework allowing strategic investors to generate yield curve projections contingent on expectations about future macroeconomic scenarios. By consistently linking the shape and location of yield curves to the state of the economy our method generates predictions for...