This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area … investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our …. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to …

there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and forecast accuracy. The PPP model offers little economic insights, but …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …

unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …