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Forecasting the Covid-19 Recession and Recovery : Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Foroni, Claudia - 2020

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822725

Switching-Track after the Great Recession

Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar - 2021

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210843

Fiscal policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area

Coenen, Günter - 2012

How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108718

Flight to Liquidity and the Great Recession

Radde, Sören - 2014

funding liquidity risk in their inter- mediation activity. Importantly, the amount of liquidity reserves held in the financial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048760

European Firm Adjustment During Times of Economic Crisis

Fabiani, Silvia - 2015

This paper exploits a unique cross-country, firm-level survey to study the responses of European firms to the sharp demand and credit contraction triggered by the global Great Recession of 2009. The analysis reveals that cost reduction — particularly labour cost reduction through the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024781

The Employment Consequences of SMEs’ Credit Constraints in the Wake of the Great Recession

Cornille, David - 2017

This article takes advantage of access to confidential matched bank-firm data relative to the Belgian economy to investigate how employment decisions of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been affected by credit constraints in the wake of the Great Recession. Variability in banks'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940882

Uncertainty Shocks, Banking Frictions and Economic Activity

Bonciani, Dario - 2015

In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity in the euro area by using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019593

Cyclical Systemic Risk and Downside Risks to Bank Profitability

Lang, Jan Hannes - 2020

This paper studies the impact of cyclical systemic risk on future bank profitability for a large representative panel … risk predict large drops in the average bank-level return on assets (ROA) with a lead time of 3-5 years. Based on quantile … local projections we further show that the negative impact of cyclical systemic risk on the left tail of the future bank …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834322

Crisis Severity and the International Trade Network

Valentinyine Endresz, Marianna - 2017

In this paper we analyse the role of the international trade network for the strength of the global recession across countries. The novelty of our paper is the use of value-added trade data to capture the importance of trade network structure. We estimate with BMA techniques how far network...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965544

Investing in Crises

Baron, Matthew; Laeven, Luc; Pénasse, Julien; Usenko, … - 2021

We investigate asset returns around banking crises in 44 advanced and emerging economies from 1960 to 2018. In contrast to the view that buying assets during banking crises is a profitable long-run strategy, we find returns of equity and other asset classes generally underperform after banking...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227328