This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

This paper extends the New Keynesian model to allow for stochastic shifts in the monetary policy regime. Agents cannot observe the regime and use a Bayesian learning rule to make optimal inferences. Price setting is adapted to this environment: lagged expectations about monetary policy influence...

This paper extends the New Keynesian model to allow for stochastic shifts in the monetary policy regime. Agents cannot observe the regime and use a Bayesian learning rule to make optimal inferences. Price setting is adapted to this environment: lagged expectations about monetary policy influence...

This paper studies the role of global factors in causing common movements in consumer price inflation, with particular focus on the food, housing and energy sub-indices. It uses a comprehensive dataset of 223 countries and territories collected from national and international sources. Global...

We confront the notion that flexible rates insulate a country from external disturbances with new evidence on spillovers from euro-area shocks to neighboring countries. We find that in response to euro-area shocks, spillovers are not smaller, and currency movements not significantly larger, in...

We analyse the elasticity of the household consumption expenditure (HCE) deflator to the exchange rate, using world input-output tables (WIOT) from 1995 to 2019. In line with the existing literature, we find a modest output-weighted elasticity of around 0.1. This elasticity is stable over time...

We build a stylised 12-country model of the euro area and use it to analyse why differences in national inflation and growth rates arise within the European monetary union. We find that inflation persistence is a key potential explanatory factor. Other more frequently mentioned reasons, like...

This paper shows that inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, inflations of (22) OECD countries have a common factor that alone account for nearly 70% of their variance. This large variance share that is associated to Global Inflation is not only due to the...

We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on the pattern of currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice is explained by both currency-specific and country-specific determinants. We use...

This paper revisits the evidence on the monetary policy transmission channels. It extends the existing literature along three lines: i) it takes a global perspective with aggregate series based on a broader set of countries (ca 70% per cent of the global economy) and a longer time (1960-2010)...