situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

The paper studies how a prolonged period of subdued price developments may induce a de-anchoring of inflation … learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting models. The analysis is accompanied by empirical evidence on the … properties of inflation expectations in the euro area. Our results also suggest that monetary policy may lose effectiveness if …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather muted … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a Phillips …

inflation targeting result in a binding lower bound one-fourth of the time as well as inflation and output exhibiting large … purchases. Makeup strategies, especially average inflation targeting with a long averaging window, perform better than inflation …

is derived from policy-makers’ preferences about inflation outcomes, we first show that downside risks to price stability … future inflation can provide insurance against the materialisation of such upside risks. …

equilibrium real rate using an estimated DSGE model for the euro area. We find that simple feedback rules that implement inflation … targeting result in a binding lower bound one-fourth of the time as well as inflation and output exhibiting large downward … purchases. Makeup strategies, especially average inflation targeting with a long averaging window, perform better than inflation …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …