Many economists believe that, while openness to trade increases average GDP growth rates, it also raises output volatility by exposing countries to terms-oftrade shocks. This view does not take into account that commercial trade might also reduce financially related volatility. Once this is...

The availability of micro pricing data has produced an empirical revolution in macroeconomics. Two events were the main culprits: First, nation statistical offices allowed economists to study the data underlying the construction of the CPI, letting our profession the chance to tackle many...

This paper analyzes bond and stock markets in Latin America and uses these patterns to investigate whether contagion occurred in the 1990's. It defines shift-contagion' as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or region. Several coin-toss examples and a...

This paper analyzes capital inflow surges to emerging economies. Probit models estimated on the period 1980-2005 discriminate well between surges associated with banking crises or recessions, and those that end without such events. The composition of inflows and the extent of financial reform...

The controversial proposal to overhaul the international accord regarding the regulation of bank capital was completed in 2004, and the thirteen Basel Committee member countries are set to implement the new accord, known as Basel II, by 2007. We develop a Basel II decision tree to guide...