In this paper, we study the empirical relationship between credit funding sources and the financial vulnerability of the Colombian banking system. We propose a statistical model to measure and predict banking fragility episodes associated with credit funding sources classified into retail...

We study the relationship between US and Colombian sovereign debt interest rates between 2004 and 2013. We also evaluate the response of the Colombian long-term bond yield and other asset prices to shocks to the US long-term Treasury rate. Two empirical exercises are performed. First, we use a...

In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones's (2008) idea that macroeconomic aggregates contain valuable information to predict lending...

This paper shows that the Colombian sovereign risk (EMBI?Colombia) is mainly determined by international investors’ risk appetite, whose response is non?linear and depends on the government fiscal stance. It is also shown that the relationship between these variables experienced an important...

This paper reviews the close relationship between business cycle and public fi nances in Colombia. The international evidence shows that cyclical move-ments in output systematically affect the balance of public fi nances. Therefore, the assessment of cy-clical and structural components of the...