We develop a bivariate spectral Granger-causality test that can be applied at each individual frequency of the spectrum. The spectral approach to Granger causality has the distinct advantage that it allows to disentangle (potentially) di®erent Granger- causality relationships over di®erent...

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable...

In content- and knowledge-based recommender systems often a measure of (dis)similarity between items is used. Frequently, this measure is based on the attributes of the items. However, which attributes are important for the users of the system remains an important question to answer. In this...

The Bass (1969) diffusion theory often guides the construction of forecasting models for new product diffusion. To match the model with data, one needs to put forward a statistical model. This paper compares four empirical versions of the model, where two of these explicitly incorporate...

We study the performance of sales forecasts which linearly combine model-based forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a unique and very large database containing monthly model-based forecasts for many pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by thirty-seven different experts, we document that...

We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We...

This paper describes a model that generates weekly movie schedules in a multiplex movie theater. A movie schedule specifies within each day of the week, on which screen(s) different movies will be played, and at which time(s). The model consists of two parts: (i) conditional forecasts of the...

Customer lifetime value (CLV) is a key-metric within CRM. Although, a large number of marketing scientists and practitioners argue in favor of this metric, there are only a few studies that consider the predictive modeling of CLV. In this study we focus on the prediction of CLV in multi-service...

Study 1 investigates the beneficial effects of experiencing pride. Pride was found to have two different effects. First, it increases salespersons' performance-related motivations. Specifically, it promotes adaptive selling strategies, greater effort, and self-efficacy. Secondly, it positively...

Today, Alchian's "Uncertainty, evolution and economic theory" (1950) is hailed by evolutionary economists as a most important piece, which resumed an evolutionary brand of theorizing in economics after the eclipse of the interwar period. On the other hand, Alchian's article is also cherished by...