This paper describes the structure and estimation of a structural macro-econometric model of the Northern Ireland economy. We show how it can be used to assess the potential impact of economic shocks and policy changes. Specifically, we have done so by examining the effects of shocks to UK...

This paper outlines the newly developed construction sector which has been incorporated into the ESRI's macroeconometric model, COSMO. Given the importance of the construction sector to the Irish economy, incorporating specific relationships for production, employment and wages in the sector...

The war in Ukraine and the subsequent increase in energy and other commodity prices has dampened the economic outlook. There are increased downside risks to economic activity and there is also considerable uncertainty around any economic projections and how they may evolve in the future. This...

To our knowledge, this study represents the first comprehensive study of cross-border workers on the Island of Ireland. We estimate that the total number of cross-border workers increased from 12,740 to between 17,827 and 19,282 which represents a growth rate of between 40 and 51 per cent....

Ireland is one of the most FDI-intensive economies in the OECD and is a significant export platform for both manufacturing and internationally traded services. This chapter provides case studies of three of the most important FDI-intensive manufacturing sectors - ICT, pharmaceuticals and medical...

The HERMES macroeconomic model has been used extensively for over 25 years to carry out medium-term forecasting and scenario analysis of the Irish economy. Most recently the model has been used to generate the scenarios underpinning the 2013 edition of the ESRI's Medium-Term Review. In the long...

This paper assesses the impact that the 2009 Great Recession had on individual's transitions to and from unemployment in Ireland. The rate of transition from unemployment to employment declined between 2006 and 2011, while the rate from employment to unemployment increased. The impact of some of...

There is almost a complete consensus in the international literature that BREXIT will have a negative effect on the UK economy both in the short and long-run. The UK is one of Ireland's closest economic partners and little is known about the potential macro-economic impact that BREXIT could have...

COSMO is a new structural econometric model of the Irish economy, with a theoretically founded structure and specification. It is designed to be used for medium-term economic projections and policy analysis. This paper outlines the key mechanisms in the model and explores the behaviour of the...

Data relating to community development activities is often decentralised in nature and does not easily facilitate any national level analysis. Given non-trivial spending in this area and increased pressure to show value for money in all areas of government expenditure, there is increased...