All practical evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and that has been taken into account in some studies by using stochastic population projections jointly with...

During the next fifty years, the growth of the population of Finland is expected to slow down, and turn into decline. The age-distribution is expected to become older because mortality declines. In particular, the share of the working age population will decline. This development is accentuated...

Future improvements in mortality are difficult to forecast. In this paper, we incorporate uncertainty about future mortality, or aggregate mortality risk, into an otherwise standard life cycle model with an intertemporal consumption-savings decision. The aggregate mortality process is calibrated...