The 2008-09 crisis has shown that some euro area member countries were unable to sufficiently stabilize their economies which has given rise to a debate about deeper fiscal integration in Europe. In this paper, we analyze the redistributive and stabilizing effects of two scenarios of fiscal...

This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways...

International activities of commercial banks are a potential source for the transmission of shocks across countries. In Europe, bank finance plays a relatively important role, and efforts have been made at creating a level playing field for financial institutions. This paper reviews the stylized...

We examine the indicator property of the monetary indicator for inflation. Using a P*-model, Svensson shows theoretically in a recent paper that the relationship between these two variables is rather tenuous. The present study employs empirical evidence on the relations in his model to quantify...

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error correction model with quarterly data for the Euro Area...

Der Stabilitätspakt hat die Aufgabe, der nationalen Finanzpolitik bei der Verschuldung die Hände zu binden und damit den Euro als vergemeinschaftete Währung abzusichern. Denn ob Geld stabil ist, hängt auch davon ab, wie solide die Staatsfinanzen sind. Den Pakt aufzuweichen wird später einen...

Der Aufsatz untersucht einige populäre Methoden zur Messung des Output Gaps auf der Basis von aggregierten Daten für die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen sie auch erhebliche Unterschiede; insbesondere ist die Korrelation zwischen...

This paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the perceived sovereign risk of Italy over the last five years. More than fifty events concerning non-standard operations are identified and classified with respect to the specific ECB...

The large Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) which the ECB started in 2015 on the basis of monetary policy purposes, had major side-effects on fiscal policy. One concerns the programme´s uncommon seigniorage effects. We find that the PSPP not only led to partly negative seigniorage gains,...

This paper attempts to evaluate the information content of money for the forecast of inflation, output, investment and consumption in the euro zone. It considers M1 and M3; a number of modifications to these aggregates is also proposed to enhance their forecast performance. The evaluation employs...