Asset liability management (ALM) is an important and challenging problem for institutional investors and financial intermediaries. The requirement to fulfill its liablilities constrains the institutional investor in its asset allocation possiblilites. We formulate an ALM model for pension funds...

Parameters in AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models are locally nonidentified, due to the problem of root cancellation. Parameters can be constructed which represent this identification problem. We argue that ARMA parameters should be analyzed conditional on these identifying parameters....

In this paper we propose a Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots in quarterly observed time series. Seasonal unit root processes are useful to describe economic series with changing seasonal fluctuations. A natural alternative model for similar purposes contains deterministic seasonal mean...