We analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly SKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the moment that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKUlevel forecasts for...

This paper reports on simulation results for the Wald test for ∝1=∝2=0 in the regression model [Please open the additional file (8526_math.png) to see the regression model] for the case ĸ is known and for the case where ĸ has to be estimated using nonlinear least squares (NLS). This last...

__Abstract__ This paper puts forward a new data collection method to measure daily consumer confidence at the individual level. The data thus obtained allow to statistically analyze the dynamic correlation of such a consumer confidence indicator and to draw inference on transition rates. The...

In this paper we propose a Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots in quarterly observed time series. Seasonal unit root processes are useful to describe economic series with changing seasonal fluctuations. A natural alternative model for similar purposes contains deterministic seasonal mean...

In this paper we consider deterministic seasonal variation in quarterly production for several European countries, and we address the question whether this variation has become more similar across countries over time. Due to economic and institutional factors, one may expect convergence across...

We consider the usefulness of the two-regime SETAR model for out-of-sample forecasting, and compare it with a linear AR model. A range of newly-developed forecast evaluation techniques are employed. Our simulation results show that time-series data need to exhibit a substantial degree of...

Each year the Dutch magazine Elsevier publishes the results of surveys amongst students concerning the perceived quality of academic studies. Unfortunately, the original survey data are not publicly available. We therefore repeat the survey for economics students in Maastricht and Rotterdam, as...

We conjecture that individual purchases of counterfeit products could be motivated by income and prices, but that another driver is cultural norms. To put the latter conjecture to an empirical test we make use of the unique situation of Surinamese people who live in Suriname and in the...

This paper describes the components of the EICIE, the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy. This measure concerns quarterly and annual growth of Dutch real Gross Domestic Product. The key component of our real-time forecasting model for Dutch quarterly GDP is weekly staffing...

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability....