It is now well known that standard asymptotic inference techniques for instrumental variable estimation perform very poorly in the presence of weak instruments. Specifically, standard asymptotic techniques give spuriously small standard errors, leading investigators to accept apparently tight...

Two widely used methods of decomposing GDP into trend and cycle yield starkly different results. The unobserved component approach implies smooth trend with large, persistent cycle. In contrast, the Beveridge and Nelson (1981) approach implies most of the variation is attributable to trend. This...

It is a well accepted empirical result that forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests of the `differences regression' of the change in the logarithm of the spot exchange rate on the forward discount. The result is referred to in the International Finance literature as the forward...