Bao, Yong; Lee, Tae-Hwy - In: Econometric analysis of financial and economic time series, (pp. 41-62). 2006
We investigate predictive abilities of nonlinear models for stock returns when density forecasts are evaluated and compared instead of the conditional mean point forecasts. The aim of this paper is to show whether the in-sample evidence of strong nonlinearity in mean may be exploited for...