This paper endogenizes the frequency of major discoveries and the extent of their refinement. Four axioms deliver a one-parameter family of beliefs that guide exploratory effort. Such effort trades off the prospect of major new discovery against the chance of successfully refining discoveries...

This paper elucidates on the logic behind recent papers which show that a unique equilibrium is selected in the presence of higher order uncertainty, i.e., when players lack common knowledge. We introduce two new concepts: stochastic potential of the information system and p-dominance of...

An evolutionary model with a finite number of players and with stochastic mutations is analyzed. The expansion and contraction of strategies is linked to their current relative success, but mutuation, perturbing the system from its deterministic evolution, are present as well. The focus is on...