This paper investigates belief learning. Unlike other investigators who have been forced to use observable proxies to approximate unobserved beliefs, we have, using a belief elicitation procedure (proper scoring rule), elicited subject beliefs directly. As a result we were able to perform a more...

In a Bayesian model of learning, the more an agent uses a technology, the better he learns its parameters. This expertise is a form of human capital. Switching to a new technology temporarily reduces expertise: the bigger the leap, the bigger the loss. This may prevent the agent from climbing...