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The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper, we propose a parametric factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696224
The three most popular univariate conditional volatility models are the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model of Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), the GJR (or threshold GARCH) model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1992), and the exponential GARCH (or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010421299
One of the most popular univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models is the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification. In addition to asymmetry, which captures the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, EGARCH can also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010421302
We retrieve news stories and earnings announcements of the S&P 100 constituents from two professional news providers, along with ten macroeconomic indicators. We also gather data from Google Trends about these firms' assets as an index of retail investors' attention. Thus, we create an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011995242
We introduce and investigate some properties of a class of nonlinear time series models based on the moving sample quantiles in the autoregressive data generating process. We derive a test fit to detect this type of nonlinearity. Using the daily realized volatility data of Standard & Poor's 500...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755269
This paper studies the asymptotic normality for the kernel deconvolution estimator when the noise distribution is logarithmic chi-square; both identical and independently distributed observations and strong mixing observations are considered. The dependent case of the result is applied to obtain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755293
volatility equation and corresponding value-at-risk predictions. We find that most GARCH coefficients and associated predictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755296
-tailed and often skewed. These features must be taken into account to produce accurate forecasts of Value-at-Risk (VaR). We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755300
We provide a new framework for modeling trends and periodic patterns in high-frequency financial data. Seeking adaptivity to ever-changing market conditions, we enlarge the Fourier flexible form into a richer functional class: both our smooth trend and the seasonality are non-parametrically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755303
day. "Good" and "bad" continuous risks both characterize the volatility persistence, while "bad" jump risk is much more … informative than "good" jump risk in forecasting future volatility. The volatility forecasting model proposed is able to capture …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755317