A look at the U.S. Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board indexes of capacity utilization, with an explanation of the indexes' construction, advantages, and shortcomings; conclusion of June 15 issue.

An examination of the usefulness of two measures of capacity utilization in predicting price pressures and future investment: one measure attempts to represent the maximum physical output a plant can produce, and one is based on changes in production costs as output increases; article concludes...

A summation of the forecasts of 27 economists made at the January 26, 1990 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with major emphasis on the inflation outlook, GNP growth, and capital spending.

Careful readers of FOMC communications will note that in addition to talking about actual inflation, the committee often talks about inflation expectations. Sandra Pianalto, the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, explains the important role that...

The world has seen a dramatic decline in inflation rates in recent decades, but concerns about inflation may still be warranted, especially in some countries. Evidence is mounting that inflation is harmful to economic activity even at fairly modest rates of inflation because of the way it...

Low inflation over long periods is the sign of an effective central bank. The authors suggest that a large fraction of the worldwide decline in inflation since the early 1980s results from an international movement toward more independent central banks.

An analysis of the sources and costs of unpredictable inflation, finding that the uncertainty stems from a lack of appropriate constraints on the monetary policy process, and that the costs could be sharply reduced by adopting a policy that targets a long-run path for the price level.

An argument that a monetary policy aimed at eliminating long-run inflation would benefit society by removing price distortion, increasing economic growth, adding liquidity to the economy, and reducing uncertainty associated with price-level drift.

The FOMC has two objectives: maximizing sustainable economic growth and maintaining price stability. At times-like the past year-these goals appear to be in conflict. This Commentary outlines some economic theory that suggests that in the long run, the FOMC can achieve its two objectives by...

Compares two possible explanations of why pay increases continue to be moderate in a vigorous labor market--workers' uncertainty about their jobs and human resource managers' wage-setting behavior--and looks at how each explanation matches the evidence on the timing of inflation and wage changes.