An examination of GNP forecasts and their implications for monetary policy, showing that although such forecasts have lessened uncertainty about the economy's future course, the errors are still too large to justify basing monetary policy on the near-term GNP outlook alone.

An analysis of broad national and regional trends in manufacturing that questions the validity of many popular beliefs about the decline of the manufacturing sector.

Say you need an accurate forecast of future GDP or inflation. What’s your best bet—the economist who was hot last year or the forecaster in the middle? The record indicates it’s tough to consistently beat the median prediction.

An analysis of the role of foreign investment in U.S. resource allocation, finding that the large influx of foreign capital in the 1980s has been used predominantly to fund domestic investment and consumer investment spending.

A historical look at the origin and uses of the word inflation, arguing that although the term has become nearly synonymous with "price increase," its original meaning--a rise in the general price level caused by an imbalance between the quantity of money and trade needs--is the definition...

Most of us, from the general public to professional economists, use the term inflation pretty loosely. It’s increasingly applied to any rise in prices, and even economists use it interchangeably with a rise in the cost of living. This Commentary explains what inflation is, why it should be...

A summation of the May 20, 1994 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which participants offered their views on the current and prospective state of the economy and discussed the limitations of describing the U.S. business cycle.

A description and examination of the expanding service economy, with the contention that its growth reflects a natural and inevitable response to rising wealth.

An analysis of the changing auto market and of factors affecting sales ( such as consumer income, costs, sticker shock, and affordability), plus a discussion of expectations of 1983 sales.

In this Commentary, we document that people report very different perceptions and predictions of inflation depending upon their income, education, age, race, and gender — a strange finding that may provide an important clue to understanding how to interpret survey data of inflation expectations.