Rapach, David E.; Weber, Christian E. - In: Economic Inquiry 42 (2004) 4, pp. 717-738
We reconsider the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a large number of financial variables with respect to real output growth over the 1985:1--1999:4 period. We show that models including financial variables display almost no forecasting ability relative to an autoregressive benchmark model...
