This note examines the longer term implications for Ireland of changes to EU budgetary rules embodied in the Fiscal Compact. On the basis of fiscal projections to 2015, it presents illustrative scenarios showing the on-going correction in the budgetary position post-2015 needed to support...

The recent financial crisis resulted in a steep contraction in the domestic economy together with a sharp decline in inflation. The Phillips curve model of inflation argues that inflation should be negatively related to economic performance and this would seem to be a potential explanatory...

This Letter describes the construction of a new monthly business cycle indicator of the Irish economy. The index of economic activity draws information from a range categories of data covering output, income, employment, external demand and credit. A statistical method is used to extract a...

Using data from the Quarterly National Household Survey, we analyse the determinants of re-employment prob- abilities among Irish workers from 2000-2012. We nd that an individual's probability of exiting unemployment diminishes with the length of stay in unemployment and age. The likelihood of...

Using data from a survey of degree graduates, this Letter presents some new empirical evidence on trends in starting salaries for new graduate labour market entrants pre and post the downturn in the Irish economy. While aggregate wage data suggest that the extent of downward wage adjustment in...

The slowdown in Irish economic activity since 2008 has been accompanied by a rise in unemployment and a sharp fall in the labour force participation rate. This note uses data from the Quarterly National Household Survey to examine the fall in participation among the younger age groups and finds...