China's growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the 'middle-income trap' and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level...

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the...

Using three distinct approaches - statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model - this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i)...

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as...