In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point...

According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.

We build a model of the euro area incorporating financial market frictions at the level of firms and households. Entrepreneurs borrow from financial intermediaries in order to purchase business capital, in the spirit of the “financial accelerator” literature. We also introduce two types of...

This paper studies the salient features of a core macro econometric model that allows for self-reinforcing co-movements between credit, asset prices and real economic activity. In contrast to the economic literature that cultivates highly stylized model representations aimed at illustrating the...

We propose to produce accurate point and interval forecasts of exchange rates by combining a number of well known fundamental based panel models. Combination of each model utilizes a set of weights computed using a linear mixture of experts's framework, where weights are determined by log scores...

The paper examines Granger-causality between the producers' and the consumers' price using Australian data within the frequency domain framework. For long run relation, the Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood approach to cointegration was utilized. The test is also supplemented by...

In this paper, we analyze macro-financial linkages in the euro area by implementing an innovative factor-augmented probit model estimated using a large database. In particular, our model specification enables the identification of the leading influence of financial variables on euro area...

Recent empirical studies have shown that intangible capital plays an important role in explaining productivity gains that have occurred during the last two decades. By introducing intangible capital in an otherwise standard theoretical real business cycle model, this paper aims to provide a...