In this paper, we evaluate the role of using consumer price index (CPI) disaggregated data to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts. Our forecasting approach is based on extracting the factors from the subcomponents of the CPI at the highest degree of disaggregation. The data set contains...

Intraday data of 26 German stocks are used to investigate whether the information contained in trading volume and number of trades as well as in various specifications of overnight returns can improve one-step-ahead volatility forecasts. For this purpose, a HAR model of the realized range...

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in forecasting stock return volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests applied to daily returns of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Index from 07/02/1995 to 08/25/2010. We find evidence of structural...

In this paper, we examine the predictive ability, both in-sample and the out-of-sample, for South African stock returns using a number of financial variables, based on monthly data with an in-sample period covering 1990:01 to 1996:12 and the out-of-sample period of 1997:01 to 2010:04. We use the...

We examine both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of South African stock return using macroeconomic variables. We base our analysis on a predictive regression framework, using monthly data covering the in-sample period between 1990:01 and 1996:12, and the out-of sample period commencing...

In this paper, we produce short term forecasts for the inflation in Turkey, using a large number of econometric models. In particular, we employ univariate models, decomposition based approaches (both in frequency and time domain), a Phillips curve motivated time varying parameter model, a suite...

This paper introduces a formal method of combining expert and model density forecasts when the sample of past forecasts is unavailable. It works directly with the expert forecast density and endogenously delivers weights for forecast combination, relying on probability rules only. The empirical...

Although many studies on the directional accuracy of forecasts by international organizations and professional forecasters have been scrutinized, little attention has been paid to forecasts by business leaders. In order to address this gap, we use directional tests to investigate whether...

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourism demand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling...

The paper develops a Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR (SOENKDSGE-VAR) model of the South African economy, characterised by incomplete pass-through of exchange rate changes, external habit formation, partial indexation of domestic prices and wages to past inflation, and staggered price...