This paper provides a summary of the OECD's new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight...

We develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions in the euro area and between the euro...

We study the contagion effects of a U.S. housing shock on OECD countries over the period of the subprime crisis. Considering a large database containing national macroeconomic, financial, and trade dynamic variables for 17 OECD countries, we evaluate forecasting accuracy, and perform a...

Macroeconometric models are often criticised for being too complex and difficult to read in theoretical terms. To overcome these difficulties, Hickman suggested the calculation of a model's implicit aggregate demand/supply (AD/AS) structure. The method helps to understand models and their main...

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are...

Although many studies on the directional accuracy of forecasts by international organizations and professional forecasters have been scrutinized, little attention has been paid to forecasts by business leaders. In order to address this gap, we use directional tests to investigate whether...

In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The...

Economists have investigated the relationship between output and export in order to explain economic growth for long years. Numerous studies have found very close correspondence between the growth of output and export. It is commonly known that Thirlwall's papers indicate very tight relationship...

In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model—the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM)—is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov...

The objective of this paper is to examine the government revenue and expenditure relationship in the context of what is known as the soft and hard budget constraint strategy. We adopt a nonlinear framework with structural breaks and focus our empirical analysis in three countries. Two of them...